Election Day Post-Market Review: The Market Tests Key Levels, but No Clear Direction Emerges

November 3, 2026 | Pivotal Point Research

The market closed Election Day without making a decisive directional commitment. Several of the pivotal levels identified in our pre-market analysis were tested, but the broader picture remains one of consolidation, short-term trading, and uncertainty.

The most interesting development was in the Nasdaq. We initially anticipated a potential short-covering rally above $685. Although the market briefly broke higher, the move was quickly rejected. That rejection changed our interpretation of the session: rather than a trending day, we were looking at another range-bound market dominated by short-term participants.

Gold also tested resistance and sold off, while silver continued its downward trend. Treasury prices remained weak, suggesting that investors were not rushing into bonds as a traditional safe haven. Meanwhile, Bitcoin held its important $75,000 reference, and semiconductor stocks remained above their key $500 level.

With election results beginning to arrive tonight, our approach remains unchanged: let the market reveal its direction through price acceptance and rejection at important levels.

1. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Failed Breakout, Continued Consolidation

Our pre-market scenario was straightforward: a sustained move above $685 could trigger a short-covering rally toward the previous highs.

That scenario did not materialize.

QQQ initially showed signs of strength. Buyers pushed the market through the $686.75 area, and at approximately 10:55 AM, price broke higher. At that point, there was a reasonable expectation that the market could continue moving toward the previous session's high near $699.

However, the breakout was rejected around 11:20 AM.

That rejection was important. Once the market failed to sustain the breakout, the probability of a trending session diminished. The subsequent price action confirmed what we were seeing: a choppy, sideways session rather than a sustained rally.

What matters next?

We are now focused on two important areas:

• $678.90: The immediate downside reference. A convincing break below this level would increase the probability of a move toward the next pivotal point.
• $656.30: The larger downside reference, approximately 3.2–3.4% below the current area.

There are two broad scenarios:

Bearish scenario: If QQQ breaks convincingly below $678–$679, we would expect the market to gradually work toward $656.30. This does not necessarily imply an immediate collapse; bargain hunters could still emerge after an initial sell-off.

Bullish scenario: If the market tests the $678 area and rejects lower prices, a favorable interpretation of election results could create the conditions for another short-covering rally.

However, the market would need to reclaim the $703–$704 area convincingly to re-enter the October trading range. A sustained breakout above $703 could open the door to a larger rally toward $750.

There is also a third possibility: the market could establish a new November balance area between approximately $666 and $702, creating another period of sideways trading.

For now, we are not predicting which scenario will occur. We are waiting for confirmation.

2. S&P 500 (SPY): $750 Holds, Larger Trend Remains Intact

SPY behaved relatively well compared with the Nasdaq.

The $750 pivotal level identified in our morning commentary held. This remains an important reference because it represents the lower boundary of a recent balance area.

If selling pressure increases, our next short-term reference is approximately $725.

A break below $725 would shift attention toward the $700–$677 area and potentially lower levels, depending on how the market develops.

For the larger market structure, we are watching the $716–$715 region. A sustained break below that area, followed by the development of lower value areas in subsequent monthly profiles, would be a more meaningful warning that the broader uptrend is deteriorating.

For now, however, the larger structure remains intact.

Our conclusion: Watch $750 first. If that level fails, monitor $725 and then the larger $716–$715 area. There is no reason to declare the broader uptrend over simply because the market has experienced a selloff.

3. Gold: Resistance Rejected, Downtrend Continues

Gold behaved almost exactly as anticipated in our pre-market analysis.

We had identified a consolidation area and expected the possibility of another choppy session. That is what unfolded.

The market initially rallied above the previous session's high, triggering stops and attracting breakout participation. However, the move failed, and gold subsequently sold off approximately 1%.

This is a familiar pattern in markets: price moves above a known reference, attracts buying, and then reverses as sellers enter.

The important question now is whether gold can begin establishing value at higher prices.

What would change our view?

We would become more constructive if gold begins building value above approximately $3,980–$4,000.

If that happens, the initial upside opportunity could be in the range of approximately 2.5–7%.

Until then, the market remains in a well-defined downtrend, with successive consolidation areas forming at lower prices.

On the downside, our broader weekly reference remains the $3,500–$3,200 area.

We are not assuming that gold must reach those levels. We are watching how the current consolidation resolves and whether the market begins accepting prices above or below the recent balance area.

4. Silver: Downtrend Remains Intact

Silver continued to show weakness, declining approximately 2.3% despite some early-session strength.

The structure remains bearish, with successive consolidation areas forming at lower prices.

These consolidation zones are important because they provide a framework for identifying potential trend reversals. A sustained move above the most recent upper consolidation areas would be an early indication that the trend may be changing.

For now, however, the next important reference is $45–$46.

We have an alert set around that area and will reassess the market when price approaches it.

There is no need to anticipate a reversal before the market provides evidence of one.

5. Treasury Bonds (TLT): Safe-Haven Demand Remains Absent

TLT continues to struggle around the $82 level.

We have been monitoring this reference for several sessions, looking for a convincing breakout above it. Instead, the market turned lower and sold off approximately 1.4% from the previous day's high.

This is consistent with our earlier observation that Treasury bonds are not currently receiving the type of safe-haven demand one might typically expect during an uncertain market environment.

However, the intermediate-term trend has not yet been invalidated.

The two levels that matter

• $82: A convincing breakout above this level would improve the technical picture.
• $80.64: A sustained break below this level, accompanied by lower developing value areas, would increase the risk that the intermediate-term uptrend is ending.

Between these two references, TLT remains in a short-term balance area.

We will wait for the market to resolve that range rather than react to every short-term fluctuation.

6. Bitcoin: $75,000 Continues to Hold

Bitcoin remains inside a wider balance area.

The $75,000 reference continues to be the most important level in our analysis. Price held that area, and the market is still trading sideways rather than establishing a clear directional trend.

A convincing break below $75,000 could expose the $69,000–$66,000 area.

If that happens, we could see another consolidation develop at lower prices.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a neutral-to-constructive position above $75,000. Election-related volatility could provide the catalyst for the next directional move, but we will wait for price confirmation.

7. Semiconductors (SMH): Positive Close, but Underlying Selling Pressure

SMH gained approximately 2.2% on the session and remained above our important $500 pivotal level.

At first glance, this looks constructive. However, looking beneath the daily performance reveals a more complicated picture.

The market repeatedly encountered selling pressure around $524. Although prices rallied, the intraday structure did not show the kind of persistent buying that would make us characterize this as a strong bullish trend day.

This is similar to what we observed in QQQ: the market moved higher but struggled to sustain the advance.

The larger picture is also worth considering.

SMH has corrected approximately 23% from its previous high near $671 to the $517 area. Despite that decline, the weekly structure remains in an uptrend.

We would not yet classify this as a confirmed long-term downtrend.

The opportunity is substantial in either direction. Our current framework suggests the potential for approximately 32% upside or 20% downside, depending on how the market resolves.

The important point is not to predict the direction. It is to wait for confirmation around the pivotal levels.

8. The Bigger Picture: Let the Market Interpret the Election

The most important observation from today's session is that the market is still undecided.

We saw:

• A failed intra-day breakout in QQQ.
• SPY holding its important $750 reference.
• Gold rejecting higher prices near resistance of 3980.
• Continued weakness in silver.
• Treasury bonds struggling to attract safe-haven demand.
• Bitcoin holding $75,000.
• Semiconductor stocks remaining above $500 despite underlying selling pressure.

The broader market structure remains in an uptrend, but that could change if important support levels begin to fail and lower value areas develop.

We do not know how investors will interpret the election results. Nor should we assume that one political outcome is automatically bullish or bearish for financial markets.

The market is a collection of participants with different objectives, expectations, and time horizons. Their collective decisions will ultimately be reflected in price.

Our job is to observe that behavior, identify the important levels, and respond when the market provides confirmation.

We do not need to predict the outcome. We need to recognize what the market is telling us.

Key Levels to Watch

These are reference levels and conditional scenarios, not guaranteed price targets.

Final Thoughts

Election Day produced more questions than answers.

The Nasdaq failed to sustain its breakout, but the broader market did not experience a decisive breakdown. Several important support levels continue to hold, and the longer-term structure across equities and semiconductors has not yet been invalidated.

Gold and silver remain weak, while Treasury bonds continue to struggle.

The next few sessions should help clarify whether we are witnessing a temporary inventory correction within a larger uptrend or the beginning of a more significant change in market structure.

Until then, patience is a position.

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