Intra-day price action comments on FED Day

Summary of Events & Market Reaction

The Rate Decision (2:00 PM): The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% (quarter-point) rate hike in a unanimous 12-0 vote, bringing the new federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.0%. The statement cited elevated inflation and resilient spending, while the Summary of Economic Projections showed that 16 of 18 members expect an additional hike this year.
The Post-Decision Reaction: Initially, markets saw a muted response, bouncing between intraday support and resistance levels. However, as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh began his press conference and delivered his forward guidance, the tone shifted sharply.
The Sell-off: Markets reacted negatively to the press conference and lack of clarity, triggering a sharp wave of selling and breaking key support levels. Commentator Jeffrey Gundlach also added to the commentary by noting he would have preferred a larger 50 basis point hike to combat sticky inflation.

1:58 PM – 2:00 PM: Live session begins just ahead of the Fed announcement. Reviewing the S&P 500 (SPY) range and identifying key intraday boundaries.
2:00 PM: The rate decision is released. CNBC reports the 25 bps hike and details from the economic projections.
2:32 PM: Kevin Warsh begins speaking. Markets begin chopping within the established gray range before breaking lower.
2:53 PM: SPY officially breaks below the critical pivotal point of $756.20, triggering stop-losses and accelerating a free fall toward the August lows.
3:12 PM – 3:15 PM: Jeffrey Gundlach's commentary plays on CNBC, discussing persistent inflation, import/export prices, and retail inventory dynamics.
3:31 PM: SPY approaches the key August low target, trading down to a low of $749.60 before attracting buyers and sparking a late-day bounce.
~3:45 PM: Closing remarks as the trading day wraps up, noting the massive intraday round trip and overall lessons in risk management and hedging.

S&P 500 (SPY):
- New Upper Boundary / Resistance: $756.00
- Crucial Intraday/Structural Support Pivotal Point: $756.50 (Breakdown triggered heavy selling)
- Next Downside Target / August Low Pivotal Point: $748.75 (Market tested down to $749.60 before bouncing)
Nasdaq (QQQ): Held up relatively stronger than SPY, maintaining position above the key $702.50 intermediate support level.
Fixed Income: 30-year bond yields holding near 5.35% – 5.40%, and the 10-year yield touching the psychological 5.0% threshold.

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