Welcome to the after-market commentary for Monday, August 24, 2026. Let's dive right into the charts.
1. Index Review: S&P 500 (ES) & Nasdaq
- S&P 500 Futures (ES): The ES has been in a macro uptrend for the past year. However, since June, it traded in a tight balance area between 7,640 (high end) and 7,250 (low end). After breaking out on August 4th, it has chopped in tighter ranges. Key levels to watch right now are 7,800 and 7,840. On August 17th, the 7,800 level broke, driving us down to retest 7,720.
- The Treasury Announcement: On August 19th, an announcement regarding long-term bond purchases failed to sustain a lasting rally, largely due to ongoing semiconductor sell-offs. We are now hovering near the critical 7,650 pivotal point.
- The Week Ahead: All eyes are on two major catalysts—Nvidia's earnings on August 26th and the Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday. These will determine whether we break down toward the previous low of 7,321 or rally back to 7,840.
- Nasdaq: Much like the ES, the Nasdaq is in a yearly uptrend but currently sits in the middle of a broader consolidation range (28,243 low to 31,000 high). Today, the market lost the crucial 29,200 level as sellers took control early in the session. The path of least resistance currently points lower toward 28,331, pending the outcome of Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings.
2. Commodities: Gold, Silver, & Crude Oil
- Gold: Gold futures had a positive session, trading higher above the 4,700 level. If bulls hold value here, the next targets are 4,920, followed by a breakout potential toward 5,440.
- Silver: Silver remains within its established balance range ($60.40 to $70.00). Despite a down day today, it continues its resurgence following July's sell-off, keeping a $71.40 target entirely feasible.
- Crude Oil: Crude remains stuck in a choppy balance area with no clear directional momentum.
3. Fixed Income & Bitcoin
- Bond Market (TLT): The bond market rallied today following rumors that the Treasury could allocate up to $1 trillion for long-duration bond purchases starting September 9th. While no purchases have officially settled yet, the rumor protected the floor.
- The 30-year interest rate is stabilizing in the 5.18% to 5.30% zone. A clean break above the $83 level in TLT offers an interesting risk-reward setup, though long-duration bonds remain exceptionally risky.
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin is seeing powerful momentum, gaining 2% over the last four days following a breakout above the $66,700 key pivotal point. Overhead supply sits at $82,600, and we will be watching to see if Bitcoin can successfully consolidate between $76,000 and $80,000.
4. Sector Rotation & Equities
- Semiconductors (SMH) & Nvidia: We continue to see persistent liquidation across semiconductor stocks. A repeating pattern of "open high, sell-off" dominated action today in the SMH, individual names like ASML, and Nvidia.
- Korean ETF: Exhibited the exact same weak pattern, opening high followed by heavy intraday liquidation.
- Utilities: After a major sell-off last week, utilities bounced 1% today, showing early signs of a potential resurgence.
Closing Note
This is the final week of August trading, meaning how we close the month will heavily dictate September's trajectory. Keep a close watch on Nvidia's earnings and Jackson Hole.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice. Futures markets are extremely risky; you can and may lose more than your initial capital. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Thank you for joining us. We’ll see you tomorrow morning for the pre-market commentary. Good night!
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