Weekend Analysis: Halloween Sell-Off, Month-End Settlement, and Key Technical Pivots

Date: October 31, 2026 (Halloween)

Time: 8:53 AM EDT

📈 Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) & S&P 500 (SPY)

Halloween Wall Street Sell-Off: Following a heavy 3.16% drop in the Nasdaq 100 on Friday and post-earnings pressure from names like Amazon, Intel, and Fortinet, the market enters November testing crucial structural boundaries.
QQQ Balance Range & Pivots: The index continues to trade within its broader multi-month consolidation zone ($687 floor to $748 ceiling). Initial focus centers on the $683–$702 initial balance corridor heading into the November open. A break below the $683 pivot opens downside risk toward the $661 situational awareness low.
SPY & RSP Divergence: The S&P 500 remains relatively insulated (~3.2% off highs), bolstered by outperformance in the equal-weight index (RSP) and defensive safe havens like Consumer Staples (XLP) and Healthcare (XLV). However, a breakdown below the $750 level would expose secondary support near $720–$725.

Sector Rotation: Capital continues to rotate aggressively out of high-beta AI growth and into stable cash-flow names (Costco, Walmart, McDonald's, Berkshire Hathaway, and healthcare leaders like Eli Lilly and Gilead).

Yield Retracement: Following the late-September peak near 5.7%–5.8% on 30-year Treasuries, yields have retreated toward 5.15%–5.3%.
November Setup: Markets are watching key inflation and political catalysts heading into the November 3 election, with fixed income providing temporary safe-haven flows.

Gold Breakdown: Gold broke decisively below the key $3,977 pivotal level on Friday, dropping sharply toward $3,884. Unless prices reclaim the $4,100 threshold, intermediate downside momentum remains vulnerable toward $3,500.
Silver Continuation: Silver continues its downward trajectory following its break below $55.60, with secondary downside risk pointing toward $45.50.
Bitcoin (BTC) Support Test: Following a 5.5% drop on Friday and recent exchange headlines, Bitcoin is testing the critical $75,000 support boundary. Holding this floor is required to prevent an acceleration toward lower balance targets.

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