Good morning! It is 11:31 AM Eastern Standard Time on Thursday, August 13, 2026. We are jumping in with an impromptu mid-morning update because the markets are actively attempting a significant move right out of the gate today.
Let's break down what we're seeing across the major indices, sectors, and cross-market indicators.
🚨 Market Action: Look Above & Reversion?
S&P 500 (ES E-Mini Futures)
- The Breakout Attempt: Early this morning, initial buyers pushed prices above the previous August 5th high (~7,820), trying to break out of our recent tight balance range.
- The Rejection: That push hit a wall at roughly 7,838, where opportunistic "other timeframe" sellers stepped in to drive prices lower. An inverted hammer formed on the 1-hour chart around 10:00 AM, and the ES has since pulled back about 24 points.
- What We're Watching: While the market is still technically in an overarching uptrend, bulls do not want to see a "look above and fail" scenario where prices revert completely back into the prior range. We are keeping an eye on a new range between 7,840 (high end) and ~7,785 (low end).
Nasdaq 100 Futures
- Divergent Strength: Unlike the S&P, the Nasdaq has held up much better, pushing firmly above its previous balance high near 30,100 without printing the same kind of weak reversal patterns so far.
- The Underlying Concern: Even with the Nasdaq showing strength, market ticks remain lackluster—struggling to break past the +700 level (whereas true bullish momentum expansion typically features ticks clearing +1,000 to +1,200).
- The Volatility Signal (VXN): Interestingly, the Cboe Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN) is actually up 1.34% today even as the index pushes higher, signaling that market participants are actively buying downside protection and hedging their portfolios.
Russell 2000
- Mirroring the S&P, the Russell looked above its July 2nd high earlier this session, only to see responsive sellers step in and attempt to push prices back toward the lower end of the range.
⚡ Sector Highlights: Chips & Global Equities
- Semiconductors (SMH): Continuing a strong momentum breakout, driven by massive surges in volatile hardware and memory names:
- SanDisk: Up an incredible 15%
- Micron: Up 7%
- Western Digital: Up 10%
- Seagate & Intel: Up 6%
- HP: Up 5% | AMD: Up 2%
- South Korean ETF (EWY): Continuing its breakout past the key 175 resistance level, heading higher on the back of strong neo-cloud and tech earnings.
🪙 Commodities & Bonds
- Precious Metals: Gold and silver are seeing a sharp pullback today, down roughly 1% and 1.5% respectively, as they test lower support zones following their recent multi-week runs. Gold miners (GDX) are down about 3%.
- Treasury Bonds: Saw a brief spike higher alongside the morning ES push, but have since experienced a similar fade back toward flat/lower territory as 30-year yields hold their ground.
Summary
We have conflicting signals this morning: the Nasdaq and semiconductor chips are showing aggressive upside breakouts, while the S&P 500 printed an initial "look above and fail" rejection at the highs, paired with cautious internal metrics like low market ticks and rising volatility hedging (VXN). We will continue watching how these levels resolve through midday.
⚖️ Required Footnote Disclaimers
- Regulatory Compliance Notice: Pivotal Point Research is an independent publisher of general-interest financial information and technical market commentary. We are not registered investment advisors, financial planners, or broker-dealers with the SEC or any state regulatory body. This commentary does not constitute personalized investment advice, financial planning, or an endorsement or solicitation to buy or sell securities. All content is prepared strictly for educational, informational, and general research purposes under the publisher's exemption.
- Risk Disclosure: The market parameters, extreme ranges, and watchlist tracking models discussed represent the internal research observations of a private fund. Trading equities and ETFs involves a high degree of risk, including the potential loss of principal capital. Past performance, asset correlations, and breakout models do not guarantee future results. Subscribers are entirely responsible for their own independent financial and risk management decisions.