Good evening! Welcome to the Pivotal Point Research Evening Market Update for Thursday, August 13, 2026 (9:57 PM EST). Let's review how today's breakout attempt played out across the major indices, commodities, and global tracking models.
📈 Major Indices: Breakouts & Retests
S&P 500 (ES E-Mini Futures)
- Today's Action: Following a breakout of our recent tight balance area, the ES pushed above the August 5th high (~7,820) on lower-than-30-day-average volume. After a morning spike, responsive sellers stepped in, driving the index down to a low near 7,798 before finding late-session buyers.
- The Outlook: As long as the market respects a sideways consolidation within this new 30-point range, the broader one-year uptrend remains intact.
Nasdaq 100 & Russell 2000
- Nasdaq: Broke out of its recent consolidation zone during the morning session before settling into sideways chop. Going forward, holding above the crucial 30,000 level is essential for bulls; a close below risks a reversion back toward 29,250.
- Russell 2000: Also printed a brief spike above its range before hanging out near the high end (between a 3,000 support and 3,057 resistance range).
- Dow Jones: Continues to build a healthy balance area above prior levels, with 53,600 serving as our key bull support threshold.
🪙 Precious Metals: Gold & Silver Pullbacks
- Gold: After breaking out above the $4,200 level earlier, gold pulled back roughly 3% (~$141) from its highs. We are watching $4,360 as a crucial support zone where previous resistance ideally flips into support.
- Silver: Pulled back about 4.5% from its recent 6.5% push. For bulls, holding above the $62.70 line in the sand is vital to keep the attempted trend reversal valid.
🏛️ Bonds & Interest Rates
- Today's Action: Following this morning's PPI inflation data release, 30-year interest rates initially spiked lower before bears stepped in to short bonds, pushing yields back up above the key 5.2% pivotal threshold. Acceptance at this higher level continues to signal sticky capital costs.
🪙 Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin
- Today's Action: Bitcoin remains range-bound and choppy below the $66,000 level, waiting for a definitive break outside of its broader balance structure.
🌏 Global & Sector Watch: EWY & SMH
- South Korean ETF (EWY) & Semiconductor ETF (SMH): Both saw attempted breakouts early in the session, closely tracking the strength of the KOSPI composite index (which finished up 1.38%). However, afternoon pullbacks—particularly in SMH, which gave back a significant portion of its early gains—highlighted how quickly initial moves can be faded. We will be closely watching whether these semiconductor and global structures can defend their new balance areas or if they risk sliding back into previous ranges.
⚖️ Required Footnote Disclaimers
- Regulatory Compliance Notice: Pivotal Point Research is an independent publisher of general-interest financial information and technical market commentary. We are not registered investment advisors, financial planners, or broker-dealers with the SEC or any state regulatory body. This commentary does not constitute personalized investment advice, financial planning, or an endorsement or solicitation to buy or sell securities. All content is prepared strictly for educational, informational, and general research purposes under the publisher's exemption.
- Risk Disclosure: The market parameters, extreme ranges, and watchlist tracking models discussed represent the internal research observations of a private fund. Trading equities and ETFs involves a high degree of risk, including the potential loss of principal capital. Past performance, asset correlations, and breakout models do not guarantee future results. Subscribers are entirely responsible for their own independent financial and risk management decisions.