Welcome to the after-market commentary for Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Let's dive right into the charts.
1. Index Review: S&P 500 (ES) & Nasdaq
- S&P 500 Futures (ES): The ES remains in a macro uptrend, though recent sessions have shown persistent intraday selling. After testing near 7,700 in the pre-market, the index faced rejection and pulled back roughly 40 points during the session, hovering near the lower end of its active balance area.
- The Week Ahead: Market participants are holding off on major directional bets as they await two pivotal events: Nvidia's earnings release after the market close on August 26th and Federal Reserve commentary from Jackson Hole. As long as the ES holds above the critical 7,650 pivotal support, the broader uptrend remains intact, but a breakdown could trigger a deeper retracement toward 7,300–7,200.
- Nasdaq: Mirroring the broader market, the Nasdaq remains stuck in a multi-month consolidation channel. Down about 0.5% today, the index shows signs of potential rollover risk ahead of Nvidia's earnings. A failure to hold current support could expose downside targets toward the 28,300 to 27,200 range.
2. Commodities: Gold, Silver, & Crude Oil
- Gold: Gold staged a strong rebound after threatening a breakdown early in the session. Buyers stepped in to defend key support levels, keeping the broader upward trajectory intact with medium-term upside targets at 4,927 and 5,400.
- Silver: Despite facing early selling pressure down 1%, silver bulls successfully defended the $67.30 pivotal support level. Action remains healthy within its wider structural range, leaving the door open for a continued push higher toward $70+.
- Crude Oil: Oil prices pulled back sharply from around $86 down to the $80 area, supported by easing geopolitical headlines out of the Middle East, which helped alleviate broader inflation pressures.
3. Fixed Income & Bitcoin
- Bond Market (TLT): The bond market saw a notable reaction following market rumors that the Treasury could leverage a $1 trillion account balance to support long-term debt, alongside falling oil prices. The 30-year yield dipped below the 5.18% pivotal point. In our own educational tracking, a long position in TLT was initiated following a clean breakout above $83, though long-duration assets remain exceptionally risky.
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin is currently consolidating healthily between $75,000 and $79,000 following its explosive breakout rally. Traders are watching for orderly sideways price action as the market looks ahead to the September open above $83,000.
4. Sector Rotation & Equities
- Semiconductors (SMH) & Nvidia: The semiconductor complex continues to exhibit a baffling structural pattern—gapping up on thin overnight volume only to experience persistent intraday liquidation. With Nvidia reporting earnings tomorrow, these chip stocks are under intense scrutiny to see if current leadership is truly rotating into defensive sectors like financials and healthcare.
- Korean ETF: Showed relative resilience compared to recent sessions, attempting to break out above the 180 level as early KOSPI indications pointed positive.
Closing Note
All eyes turn to Wednesday's after-market Nvidia earnings report and the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, which will likely determine whether the market breaks out of its late-August balance areas or extends its recent pullback.
⚖️ Required Footnote Disclaimers
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Thank you for joining us. We’ll see you tomorrow morning for the pre-market commentary. Good night!