1. Index Review: S&P 500 (ES) & Nasdaq
- S&P 500 Futures (ES): The ES remains in a macro uptrend, though it continues to compress within a tight August balance range defined by roughly 7,715 on the high end and 7,655 on the low end.
- The Main Catalyst: All eyes are squarely on Nvidia's earnings report due after the market close today. The outcome could dictate whether the market breaks its tight range, risking a slide toward the 7,300–7,200 support zone or triggering a recovery back toward 7,800+.
- Nasdaq: Trapped in a multi-month consolidation channel, the Nasdaq is sitting near key pivot boundaries between 29,400 and 29,000. Given its heavy tech weighting, today's Nvidia guidance will heavily influence whether the index rolls over toward deeper support around 28,300 or reclaims higher ground.
2. Commodities: Gold, Silver, & Crude Oil
- Gold: Gold continues to trend higher overall following its July recovery, holding up well despite minor pre-market softness. Medium-term upside targets remain focused on $4,900 and eventually $5,500 as long as key structural support holds.
- Silver: Silver is carving out a healthy consolidation range between $67.60 and $70.00. A successful monthly close here could set the stage for a strong continuation pattern toward $90 over the coming months.
- Crude Oil: Recent easing in geopolitical tensions (such as potential developments around the Strait of Hormuz) has helped pull West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices back toward the $80 mark, easing broader inflation pressures.
3. Fixed Income & Bitcoin
- Bond Market (TLT): The bond market remains a focal point as 30-year yields hover near 19-year highs. Following recent Treasury interventions and falling energy prices, yields dipped below the 5.18% pivotal point. In our own educational portfolio tracking, a long position in TLT was established following a clean breakout above $83.20, though long-duration trades carry high structural risk.
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin is currently consolidating healthily in the $76,000 to $80,000 zone following its explosive breakout rally. Traders are watching for orderly sideways price action.
4. Sector Rotation & Equities
- Semiconductors (SMH) & Nvidia: Semiconductor ETFs are facing heavy scrutiny, sitting below key recovery levels (such as $563 for SMH) ahead of today's high-stakes Nvidia earnings. Market leadership is increasingly showing rotation into more defensive or alternative sectors.
- Korean ETF: Operating in a choppy range between 175 and 180, showing relative resilience compared to domestic tech indices.
Closing Note
Today represents one of the most critical sessions of the month, featuring Nvidia's after-market earnings report, which will set the tone for broader tech valuations ahead of Thursday's Jackson Hole symposium.
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Thank you for joining us. We’ll see you after the market close for the Nvidia earnings reaction. Good luck today!